In an interesting recent e-mail exhange there was discussion of why the administration is remaining so very mum about what is being learned about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs and stockpiled weapons. When David Kay delivered his report the most striking conclusion seemed to be "the situation was more dangerous than we thought", while what played in the mainstream, unsurprisingly, was "we were all mistaken". As Angus Hemmingway asked last month: Why hasn't the administration spoken up any louder on this, except the periodic whispered reminder "we're still not convinced they won't be found".

1). One possible conclusion, as we are reminded every day, is the argument for war on the basis of Iraq having WMDs was all a scam and/or total incompetence. There were never any weapons programs and certainly no stockpiles. Saddam was a victim of bad information, if he even believed he had these weapons, and ultimately was no more of a threat to the rest of the world than any tin pot dictator anywhere else. There are plenty of blue-state folks who believe this and plenty of their political leaders hoping like HELL no weapons are ever found.

2). On the other hand, maybe the administration is just playing rope a dope. According to this theory, they remain extremely circumspect until the opposition has bloviated on the topic to the point of no return, when there are at least 700 videotaped hours of John Kerry and the rest of the motley weasel brigade holding forth on how "this president lied about the weapons of mass destruction" and how the U.N. should have had veto power over any U.S. military actions. Then, all is revealed, or at least the administration speaks up loudly to paint the true picture, and they run campaign ads for the next 7 months reminding everyone how the Democratic leadership has been essentially wrong on everything.

As the story unfolds, I will continue anticipating scenario #2.

9 Iraqi scientists murdered in past 4 months

U.S. believes killings effort to conceal scope of Iraq's nuke program

Former CIA weapons inspector David Kay said in October that two Iraqi weapons scientists who had been cooperating with the U.S. military were shot, and one of them was killed.

The murdered scientist was shot in the head outside of his apartment.

"We think it was because, in fact, he was engaged in discussions with us," Kay said.

If Saddam had a nuclear weapons program, or was working feverishly to acquire one, shouldn't the Bush administration then say, "Uh, in fact here is the reason we went to war and probably should have gone to war earlier, and at very least would go to war again over; and incidentally, the recent explosion of calumny about our intentions with regard to Iraq proves that the Democratic Party is being led by weasels"??

The whole big lie aspect of it, where facts are not allowed to get in the way of the discussion, does give one the feeling the world is insane.

Sanity does prevail in some places, however. Here is a wonderful place to go when you're feeling like everyone is out of their minds.

During his visit, Ranger Rick had several discussions and meals with real, actual reporters all of whom wanted to know why things were going so badly in Iraq.

Ranger Rick, being unarmed, patiently explained that things were NOT going badly in Iraq. In fact, he argued, if a reporter had been told a year ago - February 2003 - that by February 2004 there would be an active and peaceful debate over the form and timing of elections to establish a permanent government in Iraq the reporter would have laughed so hard that the BEER HE WAS DRINKING ON RANGER RICK'S TAB WOULD HAVE COME SHOOTING OUT OF HIS AND/OR HER NOSE!

[Thanks to Instapundit for the link.]

Another point the Bush administration would make forcefully, were they to follow scenario #2, is that the U.S. has not only been made safer by the war, the entire world has been made relatively safer ("relatively" because you're never going to be as safe in the Congo as in Kansas but the point remains). As I read somewhere recently, there is a belief among some of the Arab leaders that Bush is "batshit crazy" which has made them very very nervous and more willing to play ball with the West.

Here is more evidence that regardless of how Bush is preceived, the direction things are going as a result of the war is a positive one so far.

Intellectuals Petition for Democratization and Reform in Syria

The historic turning points meant nothing to the Ba'ath Party thinkers and leaders. Only the American occupation in Iraq, the fall of the Iraqi Ba'ath, the threat of military attack on Syria, and regime change have created the need and the calls for change, as the concern and fear about losing privilege are what motivate thoughts of development and renewal today – not a reading of history…

And now this:

Libya to Destroy Chemical Weapons

Libya will start destroying its chemical weapons on Friday as the small Arab state tries to win back the confidence of the United States and Europe after agreeing to pay damages over the 1988 Lockerbie plane bombing....

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Libya had agreed to the dismantling of a sensitive uranium conversion plant and, as a goodwill gesture, to convert a research reactor from weapons-grade highly enriched uranium to one using low-enriched fuel.

Lifting the travel ban will allow U.S. oil companies to travel to Tripoli to negotiate deals for the day that U.S. trade sanctions are lifted.